A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
